Tuesday, 23 February 2010

Poker: Luck or Skill?

The great poker debate has been going ever since god was a lad. I think I’ve spent enough time playing the game & although I’m no professional player I have my own take on it.

Luck is an important part of poker, but also luck isn’t an important part of poker. Expanding on these contradictory comments the timescale within which we view these two statements is the key to unlocking the answer. In a single HUSNG (such as this one http://www.pokerhand.org/?5205825 ) you can outplay your opponent & get all the chips ahead but sometimes, just sometimes your opponent will hit the miracle card/s he needs. Referring to the above example, my Jacks are good 88% of the time. What some people neglect to recognise is that 12% you will lose. I’ll happily play that hand 100 times again the exact same way because I know it’s +ev & I’ll come out a big winner from that scenario. But that is over the long term, which is the time frame of my second statement on luck in poker. Over the long term, luck doesn’t play a part in your results, the coin flips will even themselves out & your results will start to tell you a story of how good you really are as a player, or really how skilful you are.

I’m not going to deny, luck does play a part in poker, but long term the winners win & the fish will still play because they occasionally suck out when they’re behind. Without this mechanism bad players would give, go broke or both! The winning players can recognise the times when to get the money in ahead and long term will make healthy profits which is why poker is clearly a game of skill.

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